Despite these positive developments, significant challenges remain on the horizon. The housing market's current balance appears increasingly vulnerable when considered alongside changing population dynamics. For the year ended February 2025, annual net migration showed a gain of just 32,922 people – dramatically lower than the 113,736 recorded in the year ended February 2024, and well below the peak of 135,500 in October 2023. The significant slowdown in population growth paired with increasing housing supply could potentially undermine the current equilibrium if the trend continues.
The looming impact of U.S. tariffs adds another layer of uncertainty. With the United States serving as New Zealand's second-largest export market, this external pressure comes at a particularly vulnerable time. Lower population growth and potential economic contraction triggered by international trade disputes may test the market's resilience in the coming months.