June house price update

The national median house price remained steady at $770,000 in June, barely changing from May's $766,000, continuing in the stable $750,000-$801,000 range that has characterised the market since early 2024.

Historically, June has proven to be one of the year's most stable months for house prices. Month-to-month changes typically staying within the narrow band of -0.5 per cent to +0.5 per cent, with only rare exceptions like the pandemic-driven spike in 2020.

This price stability occurs despite, or because of, significant drops in market activity. Whilst prices remain flat between May and June, both listings and sales consistently decline. This year followed the familiar pattern: sales fell 20 per cent to 5,865 transactions, whilst listings dropped 19 per cent to 7,277.

The simultaneous retreat of both buyers and sellers creates a balanced market with reduced price pressure in both directions. This suggests June functions as a "wait and see" month and this year appears to be no different.

Looking at house prices by major city adds nuance to the story. There's a strong inverse relationship between recent performance and longer-term trends: cities that fell hardest during the 2022-2023 downturn are now bouncing back most strongly, whilst cities that held up better during the correction are now experiencing more modest declines or slower recovery.

Hamilton (+6.5 per cent) and Tauranga (+4.1 per cent) appear to be in "catch-up" mode, recovering from steeper falls, whilst Auckland (-4.0 per cent) and Wellington (-3.7 per cent), having shown more resilience during the initial downturn, are now experiencing their adjustment phase.

Auckland remains the premium market at $1.2 million, 56 per cent above the national median, whilst Wellington and Tauranga cluster around $860,000-$890,000, roughly 12-16 per cent above the national average. Hamilton and Christchurch sit closer to the national median at $741,000 and $661,000 respectively.

This city-level pattern extends across the broader regional landscape. The West Coast Region leads at +35.5 per cent annually, also showing exceptional three-year gains of +42.1 per cent. At $420,000, it remains the most affordable region. The Marlborough Region follows with strong +21 per cent growth, though three-year performance is more modest at +4.1 per cent. The Otago Region posts +15 per cent annually but sits slightly negative over three years at -4 per cent, whilst Southland Region shows +14.5 per cent annually with solid three-year gains of +12.5 per cent.

The data reveals a clear South Island advantage, with four of the top five performing regions located there, whilst most North Island regions are underperforming or declining. This follows a distinct affordability threshold pattern with markets under $650,000 demonstrating the strongest momentum in the year to June, whilst expensive markets above $800,000 are struggling.

Meanwhile, mirroring major city performance, the major population centres such as Auckland (-3.4 per cent), Wellington (-4.4 per cent), and Canterbury (-2.2 per cent) are all experiencing declines, though Canterbury's modest three-year fall of -1.5 per cent suggests greater resilience compared to Auckland's -13.3 per cent and Wellington's -10.4 per cent.