Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said while economic momentum remained relatively soft and unemployment elevated, the recent rise in CPI above the upper band reduced the Bank’s flexibility to continue easing.
“With inflation pressures re-emerging, policymakers appear reluctant to stimulate demand further at this stage,” she said.
“Housing market conditions remain steady. Prices have stabilised around $786,977 nationally, listings are elevated, and sales volumes continue to recover gradually.
“First home buyer activity remains strong, while investor and owner-occupier lending is improving.
“By holding today, the RBNZ signals a shift toward a more neutral stance. If inflation remains outside the band and activity continues to firm, rate increases later in the year are becoming an increasingly realistic possibility.”
Ray White New Zealand chief executive Daniel Coulson said, today’s decision to hold the OCR could be read as a constructive signal for the New Zealand economy.
“Holding rates at this level reflects growing confidence that inflationary pressures are moderating and that economic conditions are beginning to stabilise,” he said.
“Importantly, it also suggests the Bank is comfortable that enough has been done to slow demand, without unnecessarily constraining momentum as confidence starts to return.
“In the residential housing market, we are seeing early but encouraging signs of renewed energy. Buyer enquiry has lifted, clearance rates have improved, and decision-making timelines are shortening.
“For many buyers, this period may represent the best balance point. The last opportunity to take advantage of today’s interest rates while prices remain below their previous peaks.
“From a Ray White perspective, activity is already responding. Sales turnover across our New Zealand network has increased by approximately 11 per cent year-on-year in each of the last three months, a clear indicator that confidence is rebuilding and transactions are beginning to flow.
“While affordability and cost-of-living pressures remain front of mind for many households, a steady OCR provides a platform for confidence to continue to rebuild through 2026.”
