Where are young Kiwis settling in today's market?

To find out, we treated SA2s as a proxy for suburbs and looked at their median age in the 2023 Census. New Zealand has 2,356 SA2s, and only 22.5 per cent are mostly young, with a median age under 35. And this share has shrunk from 27.8 per cent at the 2018 Census.

From this pool, we kept suburbs where at least 66 per cent (or roughly 2 out of 3) of households own their home. This single metric is important because it separates suburbs where people are putting down roots from young suburbs where investors and renting are more common.

Finally, we required at least 30 sales in the 12 months to both September 2016 and September 2026, so a decade of price growth rests on real sales.

That leaves 30 suburbs across seven regions where young communities have settled. So where are they, and what are they like?

Canterbury has the most suburbs on the list. Nine of the 30 sit in and around Christchurch. Rolleston leads, with Rolleston South East the youngest suburb at 31.4 and Rolleston North Central having the highest ownership, at 81 per cent. Faringdon, Lincoln West and Halswell West are new estates, while the other four, Branston, Mairehau South, Malvern and Hoon Hay East, are established Christchurch suburbs.

Wellington and Waikato follow with five each. Four of Wellington's are in Wainuiomata, in Lower Hutt, where medians run from $520,000 to $595,000. All four more than doubled over the decade, between 101 and 126 per cent. The fifth, Postgate, is in Porirua.

Waikato's five are a mixed group. Nawton West in Hamilton, Tuakau South at the northern edge of the region and Kihikihi Central near Te Awamutu sit between $630,000 and $698,500, and grew 54 to 125 per cent. The other two are in Tokoroa.

Auckland is a surprise. New Zealand's biggest city has just three suburbs on the list, and one of them, Ormiston South at $1.53 million, is the most expensive of all 30. The other two are Mission Heights South at $1.28 million and Swanson at $890,000. Growth has been slowest, at 12, 29 and 22 per cent.

The cheapest suburbs on the list are in regional towns. Strathmore and Moananui in Tokoroa sit at $341,000 and $389,000, and Castlecliff East in Whanganui at $390,000. Each grew between 188 and 290 per cent, but from very low bases. Strathmore's median was about $96,000 in 2016.

The other seven are spread across Manawatū-Whanganui, Bay of Plenty and Otago, from Feilding and Tauranga to Lake Hayes.

It's easy to assume young Kiwis have given up on owning. Instead, there's a pocket of the market where under-35s are getting ahead by buying earlier and, in some cases, growing faster.

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