Inflation currently sits at 3.1 per cent, at the top of the 1 to 3 per cent target band.

With the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East pushing global oil prices higher, Ray White Group economist Atom Go Tian said inflation was expected to rise further above the band in the near term before easing as the shock passes.

“The domestic economy continues to recover, but momentum remains weak,” he said.

“Unemployment stays elevated at 5.4 per cent and households are feeling the pressure of rising petrol costs on top of prices that are already high by historical standards.

“For the housing market, today's hold extends the conditions that have supported the recovery in listing activity and sales volumes. The national median reached $795,000 in February, the first back-to-back months of positive annual growth since the post-pandemic correction.

“The question heading into autumn is whether February's momentum can survive the typical seasonal slowdown. Historically, March holds or extends February's gains before the April-July period brings its seasonal softening.

“Today's decision reflects a deliberate judgement that higher oil prices are a global phenomenon that raising interest rates cannot fix. Doing so would risk slowing a recovery that is still finding its footing, without meaningfully bringing petrol costs down.

“The key risk, and what the RBNZ will be watching closely, is whether rising petrol costs begin to shift how businesses and households expect prices to behave over the longer term. If that changes, so too will the policy outlook.”

Ray White New Zealand chief executive Daniel Coulson said the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the OCR reflected a continued “wait and see” approach as offshore economic conditions remain uncertain.

“While that caution is understandable at a policy level, we are seeing a different response in the housing market. Buyers and sellers have been gradually and consistently re-engaging rather than standing still,” Mr Coulson said.

“Across the Ray White New Zealand network, March saw solid activity, with both listing volumes and sales turnover up year-on-year. This builds on both January and February’s results and points to improving, but still measured, market momentum.

“Buyer enquiry is steady, open home attendance is consistent, and while the pace of decision-making is increasing, it remains considered.

“Higher listing numbers are also providing more choice, which is helping transactions occur, but without creating any sense of urgency or excess.

“The stability in interest rates is assisting. With fewer variables, buyers have greater confidence in their position, and sellers are responding to more consistent demand.

“While cost-of-living pressures and global uncertainty remain in the background, the housing market is showing signs of becoming more functional again.

“With the OCR remaining on hold, we would expect this gradual improvement in activity to continue if not moderately accelerate.”

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