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Few events put a country on hold like a general election. In property, the usual assumption is that buyers and sellers hold off until the result is known, and the market then moves with whatever policy follows.

To test this, we looked at REINZ median house prices, sales and days to sell around every general election since 1993. We measured each election against their average for the year before the vote. And to tell whether an election makes a difference, we compared what happened around elections with “ordinary periods”, which are stretches of time at least a year away from any election.

Our analysis starts with house prices. By election month, prices were on average 6.0 per cent higher than in the year before the campaign. In ordinary periods, they were 7.0 per cent higher over the same stretch. A year after the vote, prices were up 15.5 per cent, compared with 12.3 per cent in ordinary periods.

Ultimately, the difference is small, suggesting prices follow the market's underlying trend through elections.

What does stand out is that New Zealand is entering this year's election from a weaker point than usual. Prices in September 2026 were 2.4 per cent below their average for the year before the campaign. But this more likely reflects a soft economy and rising interest rates than any election effect on sentiment.

Sales tell a similar story. By election month, sales were on average 4.5 per cent higher than in the year before the campaign. In ordinary periods, they were 3.4 per cent lower.

Three elections were clear exceptions. In 2014 and 2017, sales fell 12 to 14 per cent compared with a year earlier, as housing policy dominated both campaigns, with debates over a capital gains tax, taxes on quick property resales and foreign buyers. Meanwhile, the big drop in 2008 was caused by the global financial crisis rather than the election.

A year after an election, sales were on average 15.2 per cent higher than in the year before the campaign, compared with 6.8 per cent lower in ordinary periods. Sales rose in the six months after the vote in 7 of the 11 elections, and homes also sold about two days faster.

As with prices, 2026 sales are running well below both averages. In September they were 12.8 per cent below the year before the campaign.

After the last three weak lead-ups (2008, 2014 and 2017), sales rose 12 and 17 per cent and then fell 1 per cent in the six months after the vote, so history doesn't promise a bounce. Each time, interest rates and government policy had a more decisive impact.

If the wider market is shaping prices and sales more than the election, is there anything the vote could do to change the market? And do voters even want it to change?

Housing has slipped down voters' list of worries. Ipsos's September survey found the cost of living was the top issue (63 per cent), followed by healthcare (44 per cent) and the economy (34 per cent). Unemployment (21 per cent) has overtaken housing for fourth place. But property is still a clear dividing line between the parties:

  • National wants to make it easier to buy a first home with a 5 per cent deposit, by raising the income limit for First Home Loans to $300,000. National, ACT and NZ First oppose a capital gains tax.
  • ACT wants to let landlords use losses on rental properties to cut the tax on their other income again.
  • NZ First wants social housing for citizens first, and a 30-year plan linking immigration, housing and infrastructure.
  • Labour wants a 28 per cent tax on profits from selling investment and commercial property, for gains made after July 2027. The family home is excluded. Landlords would keep claiming mortgage interest as a business expense.
  • The Greens want limits on rent increases, long-term tenancies as the default, and a register of landlords.
  • Te Pāti Māori wants a 5 per cent tax on home sales (first-home buyers under $1 million exempt), a tax on empty houses, an end to landlords claiming mortgage interest, and rent controls.
  • Opportunity wants the biggest change, a yearly tax of 1.75 per cent on the value of land, including the land under family homes. Farmers and retirees may be exempt.

Some of these would make a real difference to investors, developers and owners of expensive land. But under New Zealand's voting system, it's still too early to tell which policies will take hold. Coalition deals, tight government finances and practical hurdles can change what becomes law. What the market is waiting on most now is interest rates, jobs and the cost of living.

Methodology: Median sale prices, sales and days to sell are REINZ national monthly data, January 1992 to September 2026. For each election, changes are measured from the average of the 12 months ending seven months before the vote (for example, April 2022 to March 2023 for the October 2023 election, and May 2025 to April 2026 for 2026). “Ordinary periods” are periods more than a year away from any election. We also removed the regular seasonal swings in the market, such as the spring rush, so they aren't mistaken for an election effect. 

Elections covered: November 1993, October 1996, November 1999, July 2002, September 2005, November 2008, November 2011, September 2014, September 2017, October 2020 and October 2023.

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