'-Ber' bounce: Spring activity lifts prices, sales, and listings

The September median house price of $770,000 represents a 1.3 per cent increase from August—a monthly lift likely to continue through October and November. House prices typically peak twice annually: in March when the year resumes, and during the '-ber' months in anticipation of the holiday shutdown period.

In 2023, prices jumped 3.7 per cent from the winter low of $770,000 to the spring peak of $799,000. The 2024 movement was more pronounced, with prices climbing from $754,000 to $795,000. This year's growth appears more conservative than the previous two years, suggesting prices will remain within the $750,000 to $800,000 range that has characterized the market's post-pandemic stable recovery.

The same seasonal '-ber' month growth extends to listings and sales. The 12-month rolling count of listings increased 15.9 per cent from 8,181 in August to 9,482 in September. While substantial in isolation, this perfectly mirrors 2024's seasonal trends. Listings will likely continue rising through October before slowing in November.

Sales showed more conservative growth. The 12-month rolling count increased 2.5 per cent from 6,191 in August to 6,346 in September. What stands out is how 2025 sales have consistently outperformed both 2024 and 2023 levels throughout the year.

The sales-to-listings ratio provides further evidence of market maturation. Rising from a low of 60 per cent to 71 per cent, this suggests the market has moved beyond the post-correction phase where excess inventory sat unsold. Properties are now clearing at a healthier rate, pointing to better price discovery and more realistic vendor expectations meeting genuine buyer demand.

Among major cities, the '-ber' month effect is equally evident. All cities except Tauranga recorded positive median house price growth between August and September. However, only Christchurch shows positive long-term price growth, confirming that current changes are seasonal rather than structural.

Among regions, 8 of 16 recorded positive monthly growth, again reflecting typical spring activity rather than fundamental market shifts.

The strongest performers remain at the lower end of the price spectrum. Southland ($525,000) and West Coast ($447,000) lead with long-term appreciation of 16.7 per cent and 24.2 per cent, respectively. Gisborne, despite a 4.6 per cent monthly decline, shows underlying strength with 15.2 per cent three-year growth. In contrast, premium regions continue to struggle. Auckland ($978,000), remains 5.6 per cent below its three-year peak. Wellington ($760,000) and Bay of Plenty ($780,000) show similar patterns with modest seasonal gains masking longer-term weakness.