Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said the decision reflected the central bank's cautious approach even with the extended trade policy certainty.
"While Trump's tariff pause has been extended until August 1, providing additional breathing room, the RBNZ appears to be maintaining policy flexibility while assessing the longer-term implications of global trade policy uncertainty beyond the August deadline," Ms Conisbee said.
"Despite inflation remaining comfortably within the target band at 2.5 per cent and the economy showing signs of recovery from 2024's recession, the central bank has chosen to preserve policy ammunition for potential future challenges rather than take advantage of the extended trade policy stability to continue aggressive easing.
"The pause may temporarily slow housing market momentum, though previous reductions continue to work through the system. With the national median house price stable at $781,000 and elevated listings at 36,870 properties, borrowers will rely on existing rate improvements rather than expecting further immediate relief.
"The hold suggests the RBNZ is adopting a conservative approach, preferring to assess how global trade developments may unfold after the August 1st deadline before committing to further easing. This pause doesn't rule out future cuts, but suggests the RBNZ will require clearer evidence of either post-August trade disruption impacts or domestic weakness before resuming easing.
"Markets should expect the central bank to remain data-dependent and globally aware, with future moves contingent on how trade tensions evolve beyond the August deadline and domestic recovery progresses through the remainder of 2025."
Ray White New Zealand chief executive Daniel Coulson said today's decision may frustrate those looking for stronger signs of support amid persistent economic headwinds.
"After six successive cuts, including a softer 25 basis point shift in May, many had hoped today's decision would deliver further relief,” Mr Coulson said.
“The reality is that the cost of debt remains a significant drag on small business investment and household confidence. In particular, small business owners with debt secured against their homes continue to face constrained capacity to grow, hire, or pay down debt - some of which was accrued during the pandemic years.
"Still, an unchanged OCR sends a signal that the Reserve Bank believes its existing actions are beginning to gain traction. The housing market has shown early signs of improvement, with sales and listings lifting in recent months. That resilience may have influenced today's call.
"For the real estate sector, today's hold may be viewed as a pause rather than a turning point. Buyers will continue to benefit from rates well below their peak, but without a fresh stimulus, the pace of recovery may moderate.
"Confidence, however, remains higher than it was 12 months ago, and a stable OCR environment does allow participants to plan with greater certainty.
"Ultimately, today's decision reinforces that while the recovery is underway, it will be a steady one - and interest rates will remain a central driver of confidence, both in real estate and the broader economy."
